Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Water Management Problem: Upper Narew Case Study
نویسندگان
چکیده
The aim of this paper is to investigate the methods of maintaining desired flow conditions in the reaches of the ecologically valuable upper reaches of the River Narew taking into account the uncertainty in modelling process. The study is based on Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) techniques applied to a 1-D river flow model. We compare specified water management scenarios applied to the river and a water storage reservoir upstream. A locally conditioned GSA is used to estimate the influence of each conservation action scenario. The estimated uncertainty of model predictions is presented as a map of probability of inundation of the Narew National Park wetlands.
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